Ex-HKO chief warns of more frequent extreme weather amid Super El Nino

Former Hong Kong Observatory Director Shun Chi-ming and a climate group warn the “Super El Nino” event could rapidly intensify in the coming months, raising the risk of more frequent extreme rainstorms and heatwaves in Hong Kong this year and into next year.

As Typhoon Noul barrelled past Hong Kong, the city’s Observatory issued this year’s first No. 9 Gale or Storm Signal. In a social media post, former Observatory chief Shun Chi-ming says if the system had made a direct strike on Hong Kong, it could have wreaked significant havoc, describing Hong Kong as “relatively lucky” this time.

But according to major AI weather forecasting models Fengwu and Pangu, two tropical cyclones might emerge in the region next week. One of them might churn closer to Hong Kong and make landfall within 200 kilometres east of Hong Kong near Shanwei while another will likely hit Okinawa in Japan.

Speaking at an event organised by environmental group Friends of the Earth Hong Kong, former Observatory chief Shun Chi-ming cites data from international meteorological organisations that there is an over 80% chance of a “Super El Nino” emerging between October and December.

The phenomenon refers to sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, and it could persist into spring next year.

Shun Chi-ming says combined with global warming, global temperatures could hit new highs this year and next year.

The environmental group also notes historical data shows El Nino years often see more typhoons tracking towards Taiwan, the Philippines’ Luzon region and Japan, meaning Hong Kong may experience fewer direct hits.

However, during previous Super El Nino events, Hong Kong still recorded around two to five tropical cyclones affecting the city. But the storms that do arrive could become more powerful, with Hong Kong bracing for more extreme rainfall and prolonged heatwaves.

Former HKO Director Shun Chi-ming says, “For Hong Kong, of course the main effect will be the heat, because we expect the temperature to even break the previous records this year or next year.”

The group also urged the government to step up preparations with more resilience against climate risks, including improving infrastructure of drainage services, as well as stepped up support systems for vulnerable communities, including the elderly.