Market Focus This Week on Key Chinese Economic Indicators and Growth Performance

已複製連結

The market's focus this week is on several key Chinese economic indicators and the nation's growth performance.

Affected by factors including a complex and severe external environment and significant domestic structural adjustment pressures, China's economic growth slowed in the third quarter of last year. The market expects the GDP figures for the fourth quarter of last year, to be announced this week, will show a further deceleration in growth to 4.5 percent, which could be the slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022.

Among the three key drivers of the economy, retail sales of consumer goods are expected to show a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percent, marking a seventh consecutive month of slowing growth. Industrial value-added output, reflecting industrial production activity, is estimated to have risen by 5 percent, expanding 0.2 percentage points compared to November of last year.

Regarding urban fixed-asset investment, which reflects construction activity in areas like infrastructure and property, the market expects the decline for last year to have widened to 3.1 percent, potentially the lowest in five and a half years. Within this, investment in real estate development is anticipated to have fallen by 16.5 percent, with the rate of decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first eleven months.

The nationwide urban surveyed unemployment rate for last month is estimated to have risen by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2 percent.

This week, the People's Bank of China will announce this month's Loan Prime Rate (LPR). The market expects the one-year LPR to remain unchanged at 3 percent, and the five-year LPR, which is linked to mainland residential mortgage rates, to stay at 3.5 percent. Both rates have remained at these levels since last May.

The United States will release the final estimate for its third-quarter GDP last year. The market anticipates economic growth will be maintained at 4.3 percent, the fastest pace in two years. Attention will also be on the US Commerce Department's release of the November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and the core PCE Price Index (excluding food and energy), which the Federal Reserve references to gauge inflation. This data will help assess the US inflation situation and evaluate the Fed's interest rate stance.

The Bank of Japan will hold its first monetary policy meeting of the year. The market expects the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.75 percent, following a 25-basis-point hike last month. This rate continues to be at its highest level in three decades.

Regarding Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for last month, the market expects a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percent, with the rate of increase slowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to November last year. The core CPI, excluding fresh food, is estimated to have risen by 2.5 percent year-on-year, with the pace of increase slowing by 0.5 percentage points from November.